Arbeitspapier

Contingent claims analysis of sovereign debt sustainability in Asian emerging markets

Contingent claims analysis applied to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand shows no particular vulnerability to sovereign debt distress during recent years. However, the highly volatile "distance to distress" measure suggests that any of these countries may fall victim to a sudden loss in market confidence. For example, the value of Indonesia's sovereign assets dropped to just two standard deviations above its repayment obligations during the 2013 Fed taper tantrum, causing capital outflows and currency depreciation. Generally, we find that contingent claims analysis and market-based risk measures well complement conventional debt sustainability analysis for Asia.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: ADB Economics Working Paper Series ; No. 486

Classification
Wirtschaft
Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General
International Lending and Debt Problems
Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing; option pricing
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Subject
contingent claims analysis
public debt sustainability

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Brière, Marie
Ferrarini, Benno
Ramayandi, Arief
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Asian Development Bank (ADB)
(where)
Manila
(when)
2016

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Brière, Marie
  • Ferrarini, Benno
  • Ramayandi, Arief
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Time of origin

  • 2016

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