Arbeitspapier
Contingent claims analysis of sovereign debt sustainability in Asian emerging markets
Contingent claims analysis applied to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand shows no particular vulnerability to sovereign debt distress during recent years. However, the highly volatile "distance to distress" measure suggests that any of these countries may fall victim to a sudden loss in market confidence. For example, the value of Indonesia's sovereign assets dropped to just two standard deviations above its repayment obligations during the 2013 Fed taper tantrum, causing capital outflows and currency depreciation. Generally, we find that contingent claims analysis and market-based risk measures well complement conventional debt sustainability analysis for Asia.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: ADB Economics Working Paper Series ; No. 486
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General
International Lending and Debt Problems
Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing; option pricing
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- Subject
-
contingent claims analysis
public debt sustainability
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Brière, Marie
Ferrarini, Benno
Ramayandi, Arief
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Asian Development Bank (ADB)
- (where)
-
Manila
- (when)
-
2016
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Brière, Marie
- Ferrarini, Benno
- Ramayandi, Arief
- Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Time of origin
- 2016