Arbeitspapier
How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic
This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. We find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we show differences across demographic groups. Finally, we document a strong link, consistent with precautionary saving, between inflation uncertainty and how respondents used the stimulus checks they received as part of the 2020 CARES Act.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Staff Report ; No. 949
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- Thema
-
inflation expectations
inflation uncertainty and disagreement
COVID-19 pandemic
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Armantier, Olivier
Koðsar, Gizem
Pomerantz, Rachel
Skandalis, Daphné
Smith, Kyle
Topa, Giorgio
van der Klaauw, Wilbert
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- (wo)
-
New York, NY
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Armantier, Olivier
- Koðsar, Gizem
- Pomerantz, Rachel
- Skandalis, Daphné
- Smith, Kyle
- Topa, Giorgio
- van der Klaauw, Wilbert
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Entstanden
- 2020
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