Investigating survivorship bias: The case of the 1918 flu pandemic

Arbeitspapier

Estimates of the effect of fetal health shocks may suffer from survivorship bias. The fetal origins literature seemingly agrees that survivorship bias is innocuous in the sense that it induces a bias toward zero. Arguably, however, selective mortality can imply a bias away from zero. In the case of the 1918 flu pandemic, a suppressed immune system may have been protective against the most severe consequences of infection. We use historical birth records from the maternity hospital of Bern, Switzerland, to evaluate this possibility. Our results suggest that a careful consideration of survivorship bias is imperative for the evaluation of the 1918 flu pandemic and other fetal health shocks.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 316

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Health: General ; Health and Economic Development ; Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health ; Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: Europe: 1913- ; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
• Subject: Fetal origins hypothesis ; culling ; survivorship bias ; Pandemie ; Grippe ; Pränatale Entwicklung ; Langfristige Analyse ; Sterblichkeit ; Sozialstatus ; Schweiz

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Floris, Joël ; Kaiser, Laurent ; Mayr, Harald ; Staub, Kaspar ; Woitek, Ulrich
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Zurich, Department of Economics
• (where): Zurich
• (when): 2021

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.5167/uzh-166014
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/232056
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET