Arbeitspapier

Time horizon and the discount rate

We discuss the selection of the socially efficient discount rate for public investment projects that entail costs and benefits in the far distant future. We show that the discount rate should be a decreasing function of time horizon under some specific restrictions on the distribution of uncertain growth and on preferences. We consider a logarithmic random walk for consumption. The benchmark result is that, in the absence of any risk of recession, the yield curve is decreasing if relative risk aversion is decreasing. Relaxing the assumption on the absence of recession requires more restrictions on preferences, as increasing relative prudence.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Nota di Lavoro ; No. 88.1999

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making‡
Renewable Resources and Conservation: Water
Renewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy
Thema
Discounting
uncertain growth
prudence
long term
Soziale Diskontrate
Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse
Umweltökonomik
Theorie

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Gollier, Christian
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
(wo)
Milano
(wann)
1999

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Gollier, Christian
  • Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Entstanden

  • 1999

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