Arbeitspapier
Scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions from aviation
We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to forecast tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows by a factor of 12. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until 2060 when emissions per passenger-kilometre start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Forecasted emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the forecasts are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ESRI Working Paper ; No. 244
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
carbon dioxide emissions
international tourism
long-term forecasting
aviation
Tourismus
Luftverkehr
Umweltbelastung
Kohlendioxid
Prognose
Welt
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Mayor, Karen
Tol, Richard S. J.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
- (wo)
-
Dublin
- (wann)
-
2008
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Mayor, Karen
- Tol, Richard S. J.
- The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
Entstanden
- 2008
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