Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany

Arbeitspapier

We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 13094

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health ; General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling
• Subject: Germany ; Markov model ; spread of infection ; SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19 ; Corona ; projection

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Donsimoni, Jean Roch ; Glawion, René ; Plachter, Bodo ; Wälde, Klaus
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
• (where): Bonn
• (when): 2020

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/216406
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET