Arbeitspapier
Near-rational expectations: How far are surveys from rationality?
New simple forms of deviation from rational expectations (RE) are suggested: temporary near-rational expectations (TNRE) and persistent near-rational expectations (PNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model was estimated with the RE, the TNRE and the PNRE. It was estimated with and without observations from the survey's expectations. The quality of the out-of-sample forecasts was estimated. It is shown that near-rational concepts produce the same advantages as learning, without its disadvantages (including the absence of 'learning expectations' reactions on policy change). The influence of the observed expectations on forecasting quality was analysed.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: EERI Research Paper Series ; No. 04/2017
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
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DSGE
out-of-sample forecasts
survey expectations
near-rational expectations
- Ereignis
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
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Ivashchenko, Sergey
Gupta, Rangan
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI)
- (wo)
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Brussels
- (wann)
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2017
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ivashchenko, Sergey
- Gupta, Rangan
- Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI)
Entstanden
- 2017