Arbeitspapier

Near-rational expectations: How far are surveys from rationality?

New simple forms of deviation from rational expectations (RE) are suggested: temporary near-rational expectations (TNRE) and persistent near-rational expectations (PNRE). The medium-scale DSGE model was estimated with the RE, the TNRE and the PNRE. It was estimated with and without observations from the survey's expectations. The quality of the out-of-sample forecasts was estimated. It is shown that near-rational concepts produce the same advantages as learning, without its disadvantages (including the absence of 'learning expectations' reactions on policy change). The influence of the observed expectations on forecasting quality was analysed.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: EERI Research Paper Series ; No. 04/2017

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Thema
DSGE
out-of-sample forecasts
survey expectations
near-rational expectations

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Ivashchenko, Sergey
Gupta, Rangan
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI)
(wo)
Brussels
(wann)
2017

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Ivashchenko, Sergey
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI)

Entstanden

  • 2017

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