Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?

Arbeitspapier

We use a newly available dataset of euro area quarterly national accounts fiscal data and construct multi-variate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government deficit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and quarterly national accounts fiscal data, but also incorporate monthly information taken from the cash accounts of the governments. The results show the usefulness of our approach for real-time fiscal policy surveillance in Europe, given the current policy framework in which the relevant official figures are expressed in annual terms.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 937

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
• Subject: Fiscal policies ; forecasting ; Mixed frequency data ; Unobserved Components ; Finanzpolitik ; Finanzstatistik ; Haushaltsdefizit ; Prognoseverfahren ; Frühindikator ; EU-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Pedregal, Diego J. ; Pérez, Javier J.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2008

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153371
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET