Arbeitspapier
The macroeconomic consequences of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty
We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions on Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently, in aggregate and across sectors and space. The general equilibrium import elasticity is -0.8. Historically, NAFTA/WTO raised output by 1-3% for twenty years. Undoing the 2018/19 measures would raise output by cumulatively 4%. The findings imply higher output costs of protectionism than partial equilibrium or static trade models.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 2072
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
Empirical Studies of Trade
- Thema
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Trade policy
international trade
structural vector autoregressions
narrative identification
general equilibrium
United States
- Ereignis
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Boer, Lukas
Rieth, Malte
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- (wo)
-
Berlin
- (wann)
-
2024
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Boer, Lukas
- Rieth, Malte
- Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Entstanden
- 2024