Arbeitspapier

The macroeconomic consequences of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions on Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently, in aggregate and across sectors and space. The general equilibrium import elasticity is -0.8. Historically, NAFTA/WTO raised output by 1-3% for twenty years. Undoing the 2018/19 measures would raise output by cumulatively 4%. The findings imply higher output costs of protectionism than partial equilibrium or static trade models.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 2072

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
Empirical Studies of Trade
Thema
Trade policy
international trade
structural vector autoregressions
narrative identification
general equilibrium
United States

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Boer, Lukas
Rieth, Malte
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
(wo)
Berlin
(wann)
2024

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Boer, Lukas
  • Rieth, Malte
  • Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

Entstanden

  • 2024

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