Arbeitspapier

Nested pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap-based inference for structural discrete Markov decision models

This paper analyzes the higher-order properties of nested pseudo-likelihood (NPL) estimators and their practical implementation for parametric discrete Markov decision models in which the probability distribution is defined as a fixed point. We propose a new NPL estimator that can achieve quadratic convergence without fully solving the fixed point problem in every iteration. We then extend the NPL estimators to develop one-step NPL bootstrap procedures for discrete Markov decision models and provide some Monte Carlo evidence based on a machine replacement model of Rust (1987). The proposed one-step bootstrap test statistics and confidence intervals improve upon the first order asymptotics even with a relatively small number of iterations. Improvements are particularly noticeable when analyzing the dynamic impacts of counterfactual policies.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Research Report ; No. 2006-4

Classification
Wirtschaft
Hypothesis Testing: General
Estimation: General
Statistical Simulation Methods: General
Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling
Subject
Edgeworth expansion
k-step bootstrap
maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators
nested fixed point algorithm
Newton-Raphson method
policy iteration

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Kasahara, Hiroyuki
Shimotsu, Katsumi
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
The University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics
(where)
London (Ontario)
(when)
2006

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Kasahara, Hiroyuki
  • Shimotsu, Katsumi
  • The University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics

Time of origin

  • 2006

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