Arbeitspapier

Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference

We use the method of indirect inference, using the bootstrap, to test the Smets and Wouters model of the EU against a VAR auxiliary equation describing their data. We find that their model generates excessive variance compared with the data. But their model fits the dynamic facts quite well if the errors have the properties assumed by SW but scaled down. We compare a New Classical version of the model which also performs reasonably if error properties are chosen using New Classical priors (notably excluding shocks to preferences). Both versions have (different) difficulties fitting the data if the actual error properties are used. A model combining rigid and flexible-wage/price sectors, with a weight of around 5% on the rigid sector, does best in fitting the data.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Cardiff Economics Working Papers ; No. E2008/11

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Hypothesis Testing: General
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Thema
bootstrap
DSGE Model
VAR model
Model of EU
indirect inference
Wald statistic
Inflation
Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion
Bootstrap-Verfahren
VAR-Modell
Dynamisches Gleichgewicht
Kritik
EU-Staaten

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Meenagh, David
Minford, Patrick
Wickens, Michael
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
(wo)
Cardiff
(wann)
2008

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Meenagh, David
  • Minford, Patrick
  • Wickens, Michael
  • Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School

Entstanden

  • 2008

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