Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?

Arbeitspapier

In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2014. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-ofsample exercises, we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey-based indicator model outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IAB-Discussion Paper ; No. 30/2015

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Labor and Demographic Economics: General ; Particular Labor Markets: Other
• Subject: employment forecasting ; European business survey ; employment expectations ; Granger causality

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Lehmann, Robert ; Weyh, Antje
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB)
• (where): Nürnberg
• (when): 2015

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/126535
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET