Arbeitspapier
Excess Mortality as a Predictor of Mortality Crises: The Case of COVID-19 in Italy
The paper provides initial evidence that excess mortality rates by locality can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of looming mortality crises. Using recently published daily deaths figures for 7,357 Italian municipalities, we estimate the growth in daily mortality rates between the period 2015-2019 and 2020 by province. All provinces that experienced a major mortality shock in mid-March 2020 had increases in mortality rates of 100% or above already in mid-February 2020. This increase was particularly strong for males and older people, two recognizable features of COVID-19. Using panel data models, we find a strong positive and significant association between overall deaths and COVID-19 related deaths, and between early increases in mortality rates in February 2020 for any cause and the March 2020 outbreak in COVID-19 deaths. We conclude that the growth in mortality rates can potentially be used as a statistically reliable predictor of mortality crises, including COVID- 19 crises.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: GLO Discussion Paper ; No. 618
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Ceriani, Lidia
Verme, Paolo
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Global Labor Organization (GLO)
- (where)
-
Essen
- (when)
-
2020
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Ceriani, Lidia
- Verme, Paolo
- Global Labor Organization (GLO)
Time of origin
- 2020
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