Assessing future ice-sheet variability for long-term safety of deep geological repositories

Abstract. 2 concentrations resulting from anthropogenic emissions. The model is calibrated with 500 000 years (500 kyr) of climate proxy data inferred from deep-ocean sediments. 2 emissions. However, anthropogenic emissions have the potential to delay the next glaciation in Forsmark by several hundred thousand additional years. Following the initial glaciation, our results suggest that the frequency and duration of subsequent glaciations in Forsmark resemble those observed over the last 800 kyr. Considering uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions and future climate evolution, a wide range of possible future glacial developments is identified. At the extremes of this uncertainty range – developments with a low likelihood of occurrence but relevant for evaluating the robustness of the DGR – we find that Forsmark could experience ice-sheet coverage for nearly half of the next 1 Myr or remain almost entirely ice-free throughout this period. The proposed methodology is easy to implement and applicable to any potential DGR site with a recorded history of glaciations.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Assessing future ice-sheet variability for long-term safety of deep geological repositories ; volume:65 ; year:2024 ; pages:71-81 ; extent:11 ; Advances in geosciences ; 65 (2024), 71-81 (gesamt 11)

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Liakka, Johan ; Lord, Natalie S. ; Kennedy-Asser, Alan ; Lunt, Daniel ; Williams, Charles J. R. ; Näslund, Jens-Ove

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-65-71-2024
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2412200728066.575394454494
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 15.08.2025, 7:20 AM CEST