Konferenzbeitrag
Anticipating High-Speed Broadband Penetration: A Multi-Country Pre-Launch Forecasting Study
The objective of this study is to develop a new approach for pre-launch forecasting of the highspeed broadband diffusion among European community countries. However, producing such forecasts is a complex and challenging task mainly provided that past time series data concerning the relative telecom services are unavailable. Besides, multiple factors can affect adoptions such as customer heterogeneity as well as macro-economic and technological conditions. So, a multicountry method that incorporates well known diffusion models is proposed. By econometric assistance, our approach aims to capture more reliable projections in cases where the penetration is extremely immature due to lack of data. Concerning the broadband penetration in terms of download speed, rates as 100 Mbps or more seems to be mature in most countries. However, even for countries as Sweden and Romania, where penetration reached too high in downlink category (1000 Mbps or more), safe and accurate predictions cannot be deployed, as the diffusion of innovation theory argues that the level of penetration must be at least above the turning point. This area of research is important for telecom operators, as the overestimating of the demand can lead to excess inventory, while an underestimation can incurs significant opportunity costs and reduced market share.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: 32nd European Conference of the International Telecommunications Society (ITS): "Realising the digital decade in the European Union – Easier said than done?", Madrid, Spain, 19th - 20th June 2023
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
Multi-country diffusion
Multi-generation diffusion
Pre-launch forecasting
Bass model
Multivariate linear regression
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Petre, Konstantin
Chipouras, Aristides
Katsianis, Dimitris
Varoutas, Dimitris
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
International Telecommunications Society (ITS)
- (wo)
-
Calgary
- (wann)
-
2023
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Konferenzbeitrag
Beteiligte
- Petre, Konstantin
- Chipouras, Aristides
- Katsianis, Dimitris
- Varoutas, Dimitris
- International Telecommunications Society (ITS)
Entstanden
- 2023
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