Hysteresis, endogenous growth, and monetary policy

Arbeitspapier

I provide evidence of substantial hysteresis (i.e., a situation in which temporary shocks have longrun effects) from monetary shocks on two sources of endogenous growth; human capital and technological adoption. This contribution is the first to test for the presence of this phenomenon in direct measures of the supply-side potential of economies, instead of indirect measures, e.g., TFP. To estimate the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks, I improve on the the trilemma identification by incorporating a mean-unbiased instrumental variable estimator. Results show substantial hysteresis in both human capital and technological adoption. Importantly, these are found to be asymmetric, as only contractionary shocks result in long lasting responses. I evaluate the aggregate importance of monetary hysteresis with a growth accounting exercise. Across the 17 countries in sample, the accumulated average cost of monetary hysteresis ranges between 1.2 and 9.6% of TFP, for human capital and the adoption of electricity, respectively.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 348

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy ; Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers ; International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions ; International Policy Coordination and Transmission ; International Business Cycles
• Subject: hysteresis ; money non-neutrality ; endogenous growth

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Amador, Sebastián
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of California, Department of Economics
• (where): Davis, CA
• (when): 2022

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/267012
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET