Arbeitspapier
Financial crisis and slow recovery with Bayesian learning agents
In a simple continuous-time model where the learning process affects the willingness to hold liquidity, we provide an intuitive explanation of business cycle asymmetry and post-crisis slow recovery. When observing a liquidity shock, individuals rationally increase their subjective probability of re-encountering it. It leads to an upward jump in liquidity preference and a discrete fall in consumption. Conversely, as a period without shocks continues, they gradually decrease the subjective probability, reduce liquidity preference, and increase consumption. The recovery process is particularly slow after many shocks are observed within a short period because people do not easily change their pessimistic view.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ISER Discussion Paper ; No. 1085
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Demand for Money
Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- Thema
-
Bayesian Updating
Liquidity Preference
Markov Switching
Asymmetric Cycles
Persistence
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Horii, Ryo
Ono, Yoshiyasu
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)
- (wo)
-
Osaka
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Horii, Ryo
- Ono, Yoshiyasu
- Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)
Entstanden
- 2020
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