Bilateral Trade Imbalances

Arbeitspapier

Bilateral trade imbalances are determined by aggregate trade imbalances, production and expenditure patterns, and trade barriers. We calibrate a dynamic many-sector trade model to match the recent sectoral trade and production shares of 40 economies and the rest of the world. Through a variance decomposition and counterfactuals, the model allows us to assess the relative importance of these determinants for the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. Large pairwise asymmetries in residual trade “wedges” are needed for the model to match the data. These account for roughly 60% of the variation, with most of the rest due to differences in production and expenditure patterns. Aggregate trade imbalances play a minor role. A counterfactual trade policy which eliminates trade-wedge asymmetries would have sizeable effects on bilateral trade patterns and welfare. However, it would leave aggregate trade balances virtually unchanged.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 7823

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Economic Integration ; International Factor Movements and International Business: General ; Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements ; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General ; Economic Impacts of Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts
• Thema: trade imbalances ; trade wedges ; gravity

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Cuñat, Alejandro ; Zymek, Robert
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (wo): Munich
• (wann): 2019

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/207214
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ