Arbeitspapier
Uncertainty and the real economy: Evidence from Denmark
We construct an index for economic policy uncertainty in Denmark using articles in Denmark's largest financial newspaper. We adapt a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model to sort articles into topics. We combine article-specific topic weights with the occurrence of words describing uncertainty to construct our index. We then incorporate the index in a structural VAR model of the Danish economy and find that uncertainty is a robust predictor of investments and employment. According to our model, increased uncertainty contributed significantly to the drop in investments during the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Conversely, uncertainty has so far had a smaller, but still significant, impact on investments during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Danmarks Nationalbank Working Papers ; No. 165
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
General Outlook and Conditions
- Thema
-
Economic activity and employment
Current economic and monetary trends
Statistical method
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Bess, Mikkel
Grenestam, Erik
Tang-Andersen Martinello, Alessandro
Pedersen, Jesper
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Danmarks Nationalbank
- (wo)
-
Copenhagen
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Bess, Mikkel
- Grenestam, Erik
- Tang-Andersen Martinello, Alessandro
- Pedersen, Jesper
- Danmarks Nationalbank
Entstanden
- 2020
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