Immigration and the Macroeconomy: Some New Empirical Evidence

Arbeitspapier

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 - 2014Q2. The availability of a quarterly series for net immigration is crucial to achieving identification. Notably, immigration is an endogenous variable in the model and can respond to the state of the economy. We find that domestic labor supply shocks and immigration shocks are well identified and are the dominant drivers of immigration dynamics. An exogenous immigration shock lowers unemployment (even among native workers), has a positive effect on prices and on public finances in the medium run, no impact on house prices and household credit, and a negative effect on productivity.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-82-7553-944-9
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 18/2016

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Bayesian Analysis: General ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Subject: VAR ; labor supply shocks ; immigration shocks ; job-related immigration ; identification

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Furlanetto, Francesco ; Robstad, Ørjan
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Norges Bank
• (where): Oslo
• (when): 2016

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/210107
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET