Arbeitspapier
Nowcasting: Estimating developments in median household income and risk of poverty in 2014 and 2015
The at-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP) is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is crucial for monitoring of the social situation and of the effectiveness of tax and benefit policies. However, partly due to the complexity of EU-SILC data collection, estimates of the number of people at risk of poverty are published with a significant delay. This paper extends and updates previous work on estimating ('nowcasting') indicators of poverty risk using the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. The model's routines are enhanced with additional adjustments to the EU-SILC based input data in order to capture changes in the employment characteristics of the population since the data were collected. The nowcasting method is applied to twenty-five EU Member States. AROP rates are estimated up to 2015 for twenty countries and 2014 for the remaining five countries. The performance of the method is assessed by comparing the predictions with actual EU-SILC indicators for the years for which the latter are available.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: EUROMOD Working Paper ; No. EM8/16
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
Social Security and Public Pensions
- Subject
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Nowcasting
A t-risk-of-poverty
European Union
Microsimulation
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Rastrigina, Olga
Leventi, Chrysa
Vujackov, Sanja
Sutherland, Holly
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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University of Essex, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)
- (where)
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Colchester
- (when)
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2016
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Rastrigina, Olga
- Leventi, Chrysa
- Vujackov, Sanja
- Sutherland, Holly
- University of Essex, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)
Time of origin
- 2016