Arbeitspapier

Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't

In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors. Such a model reveals, among others, that domestic factors explain much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic shocks during this episode.

ISBN
978-92-899-2722-2
Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2000

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
International Business Cycles
Thema
Bayesian vector autoregression
conditional forecast
inflation dynamics
international transmission of shocks
Phillips curve
shock identification

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Bobeica, Elena
Jarociński, Marek
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
European Central Bank (ECB)
(wo)
Frankfurt a. M.
(wann)
2017

DOI
doi:10.2866/846401
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Bobeica, Elena
  • Jarociński, Marek
  • European Central Bank (ECB)

Entstanden

  • 2017

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