Arbeitspapier
Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation
This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample forecasting performance is compared to widely used alternatives, such as the term structure of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indi-cators are useful to predict inflation, if the forecasting equations are based on measures of excess liquidity.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: FIW Working Paper ; No. 119
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Demand for Money
- Thema
-
Money demand
excess liquidity
inflation forecasts
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Dreger, Christian
Wolters, Jürgen
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
FIW - Research Centre International Economics
- (wo)
-
Vienna
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Dreger, Christian
- Wolters, Jürgen
- FIW - Research Centre International Economics
Entstanden
- 2013
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