Nowcasting business cycles using toll data

Arbeitspapier

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across the country and has highly desirable availability properties (insignificant revisions, short publication lags) as a result of the innovative technology underlying its data collection. It is coincident with production activity due to the prevalence of just-in-time delivery. The Toll Index is a good early indicator of production as measured for instance by the German Production Index, provided by the German Statistical Office, which is a well-known leading indicator of the Gross National Product. The proposed new index is an excellent example of technological, innovation-driven economic telemetry, which we suggest should be established more around the world.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 5522

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access ; Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
• Subject: business cycles ; data mining ; evaluating forecasts ; macroeconomic forecasting ; new products ; transportation ; production forecasting ; nowcasting ; telemetry ; Konjunkturindikator ; Straßenbenutzungsgebühr ; Statistik ; Straßengüterverkehr ; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion ; Konjunkturprognose ; Prognoseverfahren ; Deutschland

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Askitas, Nikos ; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
• (where): Bonn
• (when): 2011

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/51943
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-201104113953
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET