Arbeitspapier

Primary surplus and debt projections based on estimated fiscal reaction functions for euro area countries

We project the path of the public debt and primary surpluses for a number of countries in the euro area under a fiscal rule based on a set of estimated fiscal policy reaction functions. Our fiscal rule represents a fiscal analogue to a well-known monetary policy rule, and it is calibrated using country-specific as well as euro area-wide parameter estimates. We then forecast the dynamics of the fiscal aggregates under different convergence, growth, and interest rate scenarios and investigate the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting methodology may be used to deliver insights into the medium-run effects of different fiscal policy rules and to provide some early warning of future fiscal pressures.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1900

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
National Deficit; Surplus
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Thema
fiscal rules
fiscal policy
euro area
forecasting

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Plödt, Martin
Reicher, Claire
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
(wo)
Kiel
(wann)
2014

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Plödt, Martin
  • Reicher, Claire
  • Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Entstanden

  • 2014

Ähnliche Objekte (12)