Arbeitspapier
Primary surplus and debt projections based on estimated fiscal reaction functions for euro area countries
We project the path of the public debt and primary surpluses for a number of countries in the euro area under a fiscal rule based on a set of estimated fiscal policy reaction functions. Our fiscal rule represents a fiscal analogue to a well-known monetary policy rule, and it is calibrated using country-specific as well as euro area-wide parameter estimates. We then forecast the dynamics of the fiscal aggregates under different convergence, growth, and interest rate scenarios and investigate the implications of these scenarios in projecting the future path of fiscal aggregates. We argue that our forecasting methodology may be used to deliver insights into the medium-run effects of different fiscal policy rules and to provide some early warning of future fiscal pressures.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1900
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
National Deficit; Surplus
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- Thema
-
fiscal rules
fiscal policy
euro area
forecasting
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Plödt, Martin
Reicher, Claire
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- (wo)
-
Kiel
- (wann)
-
2014
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Plödt, Martin
- Reicher, Claire
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Entstanden
- 2014