Arbeitspapier
Phillips curves in the euro area
We perform a robust estimation of the Phillips curve in the euro area using a battery of 630 theory-driven models. We extend the existing literature by adding model specifications, taking into account the uncertainty in the measurement of variables and testing for potential non-linearities and structural changes. Using Dynamic Model Averaging, we identify the most important determinants of inflation over the sample. We then forecast core inflation 12 quarters ahead and present its probability distribution. We compare the distribution of forecasts performed in recent years, and we assess, in a probabilistic manner, the convergence towards a sustainable path of inflation.
- ISBN
-
978-92-899-3557-9
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2295
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables: General
Monetary Policy
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Subject
-
Phillips curves
Dynamic Model Averaging
non linearities
structural changes
density forecast
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Moretti, Laura
Onorante, Luca
Saber, Shayan Zakipour
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (where)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (when)
-
2019
- DOI
-
doi:10.2866/221205
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Moretti, Laura
- Onorante, Luca
- Saber, Shayan Zakipour
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Time of origin
- 2019
Other Objects (12)
Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves
New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data
Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations
Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area
Aggregation and Euro area Phillips Curves
Aggregating Phillips curves
A Phillips curve for the euro area
Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants
Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves: Evidence from the US and the euro area
How do Beveridge and Phillips curves in the euro area behave under the stress of the world economic crisis?
Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve
Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area
Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves
New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data
Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations
Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area
Aggregation and Euro area Phillips Curves
Aggregating Phillips curves
A Phillips curve for the euro area
Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants
Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves: Evidence from the US and the euro area
How do Beveridge and Phillips curves in the euro area behave under the stress of the world economic crisis?
Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve
Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area
Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves
New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data
Estimating open economy Phillips curves for the euro area with directly measured expectations
Nonparametric Hybrid Phillips Curves Based on Subjective Expectations: Estimates for the Euro Area
Aggregation and Euro area Phillips Curves
Aggregating Phillips curves
A Phillips curve for the euro area
Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants
Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves: Evidence from the US and the euro area
How do Beveridge and Phillips curves in the euro area behave under the stress of the world economic crisis?
Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve