From boom to bust? A critical look at US shale gas projections

Arbeitspapier

US shale gas production is generally expected to continue its fast rise. However, a cautious evaluation is needed. Shale gas resource estimates are potentially overoptimistic and it is uncertain to which extent they can be produced economically. Moreover, the adverse environmental effects of ever more wells to be drilled may lead to a fall in public acceptance and a strengthening of regulation. The objective of this paper is hence twofold: providing a critical look at current US shale gas projections, and investigating in a second step the implications of a less optimistic development by means of numerical simulation. In a world of declining US shale gas production after 2015, natural gas consumption outside the USA is reduced from its reference path by at least as much as US consumption. Trade flows are redirected, and the current US debate on LNG export capacity requirements becomes obsolete.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 1338

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade ; Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels ; Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices ; Resource Booms ; Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis ; Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
• Subject: Natural Gas ; Shale ; USA ; Scenarios ; Equilibrium Modeling

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Richter, Philipp M.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2013

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/88152
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET