Arbeitspapier

The younger age profile of COVID-19 deaths in developing countries

This paper examines why a larger share of COVID-19 deaths occurs among young and middle-aged adults in developing countries than in high-income countries. Using novel data at the country, city, and patient levels, we investigate the drivers of this gap in terms of the key components of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered framework. We obtain three main results. First, we show that the COVID-19 mortality age gap is not explained by younger susceptible populations in developing countries. Second, we provide indirect evidence that higher infection rates play a role, showing that variables linked to faster COVID-19 spread such as residential crowding and labor informality are correlated with younger mortality age profiles across cities. Third, we show that lower recovery rates in developing countries account for nearly all of the higher death shares among young adults, and for almost half of the higher death shares among middle-aged adults. Our evidence suggests that lower recovery rates in developing countries are driven by a higher prevalence of preexisting conditions that have been linked to more severe COVID-19 complications, and by more limited access to hospitals and intensive care units in some countries.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: IDB Working Paper Series ; No. IDB-WP-1154

Classification
Wirtschaft
Health and Inequality
Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Demographic Economics: General
General Regional Economics (includes Regional Data)
Comparative Studies of Countries
Subject
COVID-19
Coronavirus
Mortality
Developing countries

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Chauvin, Juan Pablo
Fowler, Annabelle
Herrera L., Nicolás
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
(where)
Washington, DC
(when)
2020

DOI
doi:10.18235/0002879
Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Chauvin, Juan Pablo
  • Fowler, Annabelle
  • Herrera L., Nicolás
  • Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

Time of origin

  • 2020

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