Arbeitspapier
The Greek debt crisis: Likely causes, mechanics and outcomes
We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic fundamentals over 2001-2009 to levels inconsistent with longterm EMU participation; and (b) a double shift in markets’ expectations, from a regime of credible commitment to future EMU participation under an implicit EMU/German guarantee of Greek fiscal liabilities, to a regime of non-credible EMU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to other periphery EMU countries is significant; and that without extensive structural reforms the sustainability of the EMU is in question.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Cardiff Economics Working Papers ; No. E2010/3
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Foreign Exchange
International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
International Lending and Debt Problems
Open Economy Macroeconomics
International Policy Coordination and Transmission
International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy: General
- Thema
-
currency crises
bonds market
expectations
fiscal guarantees
contagion
Öffentliche Schulden
Insolvenz
Kreditabkommen
Wirtschaftskrise
Griechenland
Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Arghyrou, Michael G.
Tsoukalas, John D.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
- (wo)
-
Cardiff
- (wann)
-
2010
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Arghyrou, Michael G.
- Tsoukalas, John D.
- Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
Entstanden
- 2010
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