Arbeitspapier
Re-evaluating RCTs with nightlights - An example from biometric smartcards in India
Satellite data and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are a powerful combination for analyzing causal effects beyond traditional survey-based indicators. The usage of remotely collected data for evaluating RCTs is cost-effective, objective and possible for anyone with treatment assignment data. By re-evaluating one of the largest RCTs - the smartcard intervention of Muralidharan et al. (2016) covering 20 million people - with Indian nighttime luminosity, this paper finds that nightlights as a specific type of satellite data likely often are too noisy to evaluate RCTs. Building upon a post-treatment and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we do not find any statistically significant effects of the biometric smartcards on nightlights, contrasting Muralidharan et al. (2017)'s results of higher income level in treated areas. This can be mainly explained either with the noisiness-caused inability of nightlights to specifically capture economic effects or the absence of an increased economic activity due to a simple redistributive effect of the intervention. The former is more likely when looking at GDP implications of the noisiness in the luminosity data. Per head estimates, sensitivity checks for spillovers, subdistrict-level instead of village-level observations and different time-wise aggregations of nightlight data do not lead to changed results. Although limited with nightlights, nonetheless, the potential for re-evaluating RCTs with satellite data in general is enormous in three ways: (1) For confirming claimed treatment effects, (2) to understand additional impacts and (3) for cost-effectively understanding long-term impacts of interventions. Using daytime imagery for analyzing RCTs is a promising direction for future research.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics ; No. 152
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
Field Experiments
Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
Social Security and Public Pensions
Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
- Subject
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RCT
randomized
nightlight
daylight
satellite
remote-sensing
nighttimeluminosity
India
Census
Muralidharan
state capacity
GDP
nightlights
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Stein, Merlin
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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University of Tübingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences
- (where)
-
Tübingen
- (when)
-
2021
- DOI
-
doi:10.15496/publikation-63784
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:bsz:21-dspace-1224207
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Stein, Merlin
- University of Tübingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences
Time of origin
- 2021
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