The Arab Spring was predictable in 2007: Empirics of proof

Arbeitspapier

We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: AGDI Working Paper ; No. WP/17/052

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Africa; Oceania ; Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development ; Development Planning and Policy: General ; Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence ; Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
• Subject: Arab Spring ; Political Instability ; Timing ; Economic Growth

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Asongu, Simplice ; Nwachukwu, Jacinta C.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): African Governance and Development Institute (AGDI)
• (where): Yaoundé
• (when): 2017

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/191314
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET