The Neoclassical Growth of China

Arbeitspapier

This paper studies China's four-fold increase in per capita GDP relative to the U.S. between 1995 and 2019. First, we argue that China's growth pattern is very similar to that of several other East Asia economies that initially grew very quickly. Second, we show that a minimalist Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with a parsimonious TFP catch-up process can account for China's growth path and the growth paths of other East Asia economies at a similar stage of development. The growth paths of other East Asia economies and the model predictions suggest that China's growth will substantially slow, so much so that we find the U.S. growth rate will likely be higher than China's by 2043. We also find that China's income per capita will level off at roughly 44% of the U.S. level around 2100.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10499

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; General Aggregative Models: General ; Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data) ; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
• Subject: China ; East Asia ; economic growth ; Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model ; TFP catch up

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús ; Ohanian, Lee ; Yao, Wen
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2023

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/279249
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET