Arbeitspapier
The Global Economic Barometers: Composite indicators for the world economy
This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world's output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection procedure, in which a pre-set correlation threshold and the targeted leads to a reference series are used as selection criteria. In the second stage, the selected variables are combined and transformed into the respective composite indicators, computed as the first partial least squares factor with the reference series as response variable. In the last vintage referred to in this paper (December 2018), out of 6605 transformations from 1681 variables tested in the first stage, 1275 are selected to enter into the coincident and 1228 into the leading composite indicator. We analyse the characteristics of the two new indicators in a pseudo real-time setting and demonstrate that both are useful additions to the small number of indicators for the global business cycle published so far.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: KOF Working Papers ; No. 471
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Subject
-
Business cycles
growth rate cycles
composite indicators
leading indicators
coincidentindicators
partial least squares
real-time simulations
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Abberger, Klaus
Graff, Michael
Campelo, Aloisio
Lemos Gouveia, Anna Carolina
Müller, Oliver
Sturm, Jan-Egbert
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
- (where)
-
Zurich
- (when)
-
2020
- DOI
-
doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000401651
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Abberger, Klaus
- Graff, Michael
- Campelo, Aloisio
- Lemos Gouveia, Anna Carolina
- Müller, Oliver
- Sturm, Jan-Egbert
- ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Time of origin
- 2020
Other Objects (12)
The KOF Economic Barometer, version 2014: A composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle
„Vollgeld-Initiative“ gefährdet Geldwertstabilität
Imputing monthly values for quarterly time series: An application performed with Swiss business cycle data
Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series. An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data
The effect of policy uncertainty on investment plans: Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far-reaching referendum in Switzerland
The Swiss Mass Immigration Initiative: The impact of increased policy uncertainty on expected firm behaviour
The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans: Evidence from the Unexpected Acceptance of a Far-Reaching Referendum in Switzerland
Methodische Aspekte zur Erfassung des peripheren Sauerstoffangebotes unter Anwendung der Pulsoxymetrie und der transkutanen Sauerstoffpartialdruckmessung
Untersuchungen zur Bedeutung der GTPase-aktivierenden Proteine (GAP) im ras-Signalweg
Die epistemische Funktion anthropogenetischer Narrative bei Hans Blumenberg
Das Einsteigerseminar Delphi 2.0 : [der methodische und ausführliche Einstieg]
Das technisierte Gehirn : Neurotechnologien als Herausforderung für Ethik und Anthropologie
The KOF Economic Barometer, version 2014: A composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle
„Vollgeld-Initiative“ gefährdet Geldwertstabilität
Imputing monthly values for quarterly time series: An application performed with Swiss business cycle data
Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series. An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data
The effect of policy uncertainty on investment plans: Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far-reaching referendum in Switzerland
The Swiss Mass Immigration Initiative: The impact of increased policy uncertainty on expected firm behaviour
The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans: Evidence from the Unexpected Acceptance of a Far-Reaching Referendum in Switzerland
Methodische Aspekte zur Erfassung des peripheren Sauerstoffangebotes unter Anwendung der Pulsoxymetrie und der transkutanen Sauerstoffpartialdruckmessung
Untersuchungen zur Bedeutung der GTPase-aktivierenden Proteine (GAP) im ras-Signalweg
Die epistemische Funktion anthropogenetischer Narrative bei Hans Blumenberg
Das Einsteigerseminar Delphi 2.0 : [der methodische und ausführliche Einstieg]
Das technisierte Gehirn : Neurotechnologien als Herausforderung für Ethik und Anthropologie
The KOF Economic Barometer, version 2014: A composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle
„Vollgeld-Initiative“ gefährdet Geldwertstabilität
Imputing monthly values for quarterly time series: An application performed with Swiss business cycle data
Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series. An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data
The effect of policy uncertainty on investment plans: Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far-reaching referendum in Switzerland
The Swiss Mass Immigration Initiative: The impact of increased policy uncertainty on expected firm behaviour
The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans: Evidence from the Unexpected Acceptance of a Far-Reaching Referendum in Switzerland
Methodische Aspekte zur Erfassung des peripheren Sauerstoffangebotes unter Anwendung der Pulsoxymetrie und der transkutanen Sauerstoffpartialdruckmessung
Untersuchungen zur Bedeutung der GTPase-aktivierenden Proteine (GAP) im ras-Signalweg
Die epistemische Funktion anthropogenetischer Narrative bei Hans Blumenberg
Das Einsteigerseminar Delphi 2.0 : [der methodische und ausführliche Einstieg]