Arbeitspapier

Drivers of Fiscal Sustainability: A Time-Varying Analysis for Portugal

We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in Portugal during the period 1999Q4-2021Q4. We resort to expanding window and Schlicht (2003, 2021)'s time-varying approaches to construct the responses of government revenues to government expenditures and the responses of the primary government balance and the cyclically adjusted primary government balance (CAPB) to the debt-to-GDP ratio. Our results show the prevalence of a Ricardian fiscal regime in Portugal. If the (i-g) differential is positive, the positive response of the primary government balance to the debt-to-GDP ratio is amplified. An improvement in the external accounts, the increase in the European Commission's fiscal rules index and the extension of the debt maturity were beneficial for fiscal sustainability. Sovereign debt rating downgrades implied a posterior fiscal reaction that improves fiscal sustainability. Moreover, fiscal sustainability increased during the implementation of the international financial assistance program to Portugal, between 2011Q2 and 2014Q2.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10674

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
National Budget; Budget Systems
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Fiscal Policy
Thema
fiscal sustainability
primary government balance
government debt
expanding window
time-varying
Portugal

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Afonso, António
Coelho, José Carlos
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
(wo)
Munich
(wann)
2023

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Afonso, António
  • Coelho, José Carlos
  • Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

Entstanden

  • 2023

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