Arbeitspapier
Uncertain trends in economic policy uncertainty
The news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty indices (EPU) of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom display discernible trends that can be found neither in other European countries nor in other uncertainty indicators. Therefore, we replicate the EPU index of European countries and show that these trends are sensitive to the rather arbitrary choice of normalizing the raw counts of news related to economic policy uncertainty by the count of all newspaper articles. We show that an alternative normalization by news on economic policy leads to different long-term dynamics with less pronounced trends and markedly lower uncertainty during recent periods of uncertainty such as Brexit or the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, our results suggest that the effects of uncertainty related to these events on economic activity may have been overestimated.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: IES Working Paper ; No. 1/2024
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
General Outlook and Conditions
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Subject
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economic policy uncertainty
trend-cycle decomposition
reproducibility
reliability
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Buliskeria, Nino
Baxa, Jaromir
Šestořád, Tomáš
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Charles University in Prague, Institute of Economic Studies (IES)
- (where)
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Prague
- (when)
-
2024
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Buliskeria, Nino
- Baxa, Jaromir
- Šestořád, Tomáš
- Charles University in Prague, Institute of Economic Studies (IES)
Time of origin
- 2024
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