Arbeitspapier
China's dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri-polar global currency system
This paper assesses whether the international monetary system is already tripolar and centred around the US dollar, the euro and the Chinese renminbi (RMB). It focuses on what we call China’s “dominance hypothesis”, i.e. whether the renminbi is already the dominant currency in Asia, exerting a large influence on exchange rate and monetary policies in the region, a direct reference to the old “German dominance hypothesis” which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s-1990s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a complementary event study, we find evidence that the RMB has become a key driver of currency movements in emerging Asia since the mid-2000s, and even more so since the global financial crisis. These results are consistent with China’s dominance hypothesis and with the view that the international monetary system is already tri-polar. However, we also find that China’s currency movements are to some extent affected by those in the rest of Asia.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1392
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
International Finance: General
Foreign Exchange
International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative
- Subject
-
China
euro
Exchange Rates
German dominance hypothesis
international monetary system
renminbi
tri-polarity
US dollar
Internationales Währungssystem
Währungswettbewerb
Reservewährung
Wechselkurs
Renminbi
US-Dollar
Euro
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Fratzscher, Marcel
Mehl, Arnaud
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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European Central Bank (ECB)
- (where)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (when)
-
2011
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Fratzscher, Marcel
- Mehl, Arnaud
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Time of origin
- 2011
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