Arbeitspapier
Can we predict vulnerability to poverty?
There are alternative definitions of vulnerability to poverty. Most researchers prefer to define vulnerability as the probability of a household or individual falling into poverty in the future. Based on this definition and using household survey panel data from rural China, this paper attempt to assess the extent to which we can measure vulnerability to poverty. The assessment is based on comparisons between predicted vulnerability and actually observed poverty. We find that the precision of prediction, first, varies depending on the vulnerability line; our results suggest setting the line at 50 per cent in order to improve predictive power. Second, precision depends on how permanent income is estimated. Assuming log-normal distribution of income, it is preferable to use past weighted average income as an estimate of permanent income rather than using regressions to gage permanent income. And third, prediction precision depends on the chosen poverty line. More accurate measurement of vulnerability to poverty is obtained with a higher poverty line of US$2 instead of US$1.
- ISBN
-
978-92-9230-136-1
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: WIDER Research Paper ; No. 2008/82
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Statistical Simulation Methods: General
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
- Thema
-
vulnerability
poverty
permanent income
transitory income
Armut
Einkommenshypothese
China
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Zhang, Yuan
Wan, Guanghua
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
- (wo)
-
Helsinki
- (wann)
-
2008
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Zhang, Yuan
- Wan, Guanghua
- The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
Entstanden
- 2008
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Poverty Reduction Effect of Chinese Aid and Investment in the Belt and Road
Urbanization, inequality, and poverty in the People's Republic of China
Computer-Aided Diagnosis for Pneumoconiosis Staging Based on Multi-scale Feature Mapping
Between-Country Disparities in MDGs: The Asia and Pacific Region
Exploring the trade-urbanization nexus in developing economies: Evidence and implications
Structure change and urban inequality in the People's Republic of China
Will the central land inspection affect the intensity of local environmental protection? Evidence from China
Permselective and ion-selective carbon nanopores and next-generation technologies for electrochemical water treatment
Deterioration of concrete under the coupling action of freeze–thaw cycles and salt solution erosion
Characteristics of older adult hospitalized patients with bronchial asthma: a retrospective study
HMM-FRAME: accurate protein domain classification for metagenomic sequences containing frameshift errors
What’s new in artificially intelligent joint surgery in China? The minutes of the 2021 IEEE ICRA and literature review
Poverty Reduction Effect of Chinese Aid and Investment in the Belt and Road
Urbanization, inequality, and poverty in the People's Republic of China
Computer-Aided Diagnosis for Pneumoconiosis Staging Based on Multi-scale Feature Mapping
Between-Country Disparities in MDGs: The Asia and Pacific Region
Exploring the trade-urbanization nexus in developing economies: Evidence and implications
Structure change and urban inequality in the People's Republic of China
Will the central land inspection affect the intensity of local environmental protection? Evidence from China
Permselective and ion-selective carbon nanopores and next-generation technologies for electrochemical water treatment
Deterioration of concrete under the coupling action of freeze–thaw cycles and salt solution erosion
Characteristics of older adult hospitalized patients with bronchial asthma: a retrospective study
HMM-FRAME: accurate protein domain classification for metagenomic sequences containing frameshift errors
What’s new in artificially intelligent joint surgery in China? The minutes of the 2021 IEEE ICRA and literature review
Poverty Reduction Effect of Chinese Aid and Investment in the Belt and Road
Urbanization, inequality, and poverty in the People's Republic of China
Computer-Aided Diagnosis for Pneumoconiosis Staging Based on Multi-scale Feature Mapping
Between-Country Disparities in MDGs: The Asia and Pacific Region
Exploring the trade-urbanization nexus in developing economies: Evidence and implications
Structure change and urban inequality in the People's Republic of China
Will the central land inspection affect the intensity of local environmental protection? Evidence from China
Permselective and ion-selective carbon nanopores and next-generation technologies for electrochemical water treatment
Deterioration of concrete under the coupling action of freeze–thaw cycles and salt solution erosion
Characteristics of older adult hospitalized patients with bronchial asthma: a retrospective study
HMM-FRAME: accurate protein domain classification for metagenomic sequences containing frameshift errors