Forecasting with instabilities: An application to DSGE models with financial frictions

Arbeitspapier

This paper examines whether the presence of parameter instabilities in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial frictions for the US economy. Over the forecast period 2001-2013, the models augmented with financial frictions lead to an improvement in forecasts for inflation and the short term interest rate, while for GDP growth rate the performance depends on the horizon/period. We interpret this finding taking into account parameters instabilities. Fluctuation test shows that models with financial frictions outperform in forecasting inflation but not the GDP growth rate.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series ; No. WP15/23

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Bayesian Analysis: General ; Estimation: General ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Subject: Bayesian estimation ; Forecasting ; Financial frictions ; Parameter instabilities

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Cardani, Roberta ; Paccagnini, Alessia ; Villa, Stefania
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University College Dublin, UCD School of Economics
• (where): Dublin
• (when): 2015

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/129338
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET