Does permanent income determine the vote?

Arbeitspapier

I study to what extent voters are forward looking and how future income affects the voting decision. Particularly, I estimate the effect of both transitory and permanent income on preferences for different parties using a panel data set from the Norwegian Election Study. To construct a proxy for permanent income, I use stated expectations about the future economic situation and an estimate of how this affects future income. It turns out that once we include the proxy for permanent income, transitory income has no explanatory power on voting behaviour, supporting the hypothesis of forward looking voting. As expected, a high expected permanent income leads to Conservative voting and a low income to Socialist voting.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Memorandum ; No. 2004,23

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities ; Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions ; Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior ; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making‡ ; Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government ; National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
• Subject: Voting ; permanent income ; redistribution ; Wahlverhalten ; Einkommenshypothese

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Lind, Jo Thori
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Oslo, Department of Economics
• (where): Oslo
• (when): 2004

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/63111
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET