Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Abstract I 15 I 15 I 15 I 15 values as input to the inundation model resulted in lower-than-observed flow volumes which translated into under-forecasting of the inundation area. Even so, approximately 94 % of the observed inundated area was forecast to have an inundation probability greater than 1 %, demonstrating that the observed extent of inundation was generally captured within the range of outcomes predicted by the model. Sensitivity analyses indicate that debris-flow volume and two parameters associated with debris-flow mobility exert significant influence on inundation predictions, but reducing uncertainty in postfire debris-flow volume predictions will have the largest impact on reducing inundation outcome uncertainty. This study represents a first step toward a near-real-time hazard assessment product that includes probabilistic estimates of debris-flow inundation and provides guidance for future improvements to this and similar model frameworks by identifying key sources of uncertainty.
- Location
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Extent
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Online-Ressource
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall ; volume:24 ; number:7 ; year:2024 ; pages:2359-2374 ; extent:16
Natural hazards and earth system sciences ; 24, Heft 7 (2024), 2359-2374 (gesamt 16)
- Creator
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Prescott, Alexander B.
McGuire, Luke A.
Jun, Kwang-Sung
Barnhart, Katherine R.
Oakley, Nina S.
- DOI
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10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2408061224161.156550938211
- Rights
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Last update
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14.08.2025, 10:53 AM CEST
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Associated
- Prescott, Alexander B.
- McGuire, Luke A.
- Jun, Kwang-Sung
- Barnhart, Katherine R.
- Oakley, Nina S.
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Blue carbon potential of coastal wetland restoration varies with inundation and rainfall
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