A Summer Break for the Unemployment Rate: Google-Assisted Forecasting Signals Easing

Artikel

To date, the Great Recession has only had a mild impact on the German labor market. In view of the uncertainties surrounding future economic growth, the low utilization of the workforce in firms, and the prevalence of working hour reductions, many observers are anticipating a dramatic rise in unemployment in the fall, with the total number of unemployed rapidly surpassing the four-million mark. Yet according to forecasts based on Google search statistics, in all likelihood the unemployment rate will remain relatively stable in August and through the end of September, when elections for the German Bundestag will be held. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is actually falling. Given this fact, the danger that the total number of unemployed will exceed four million during this year seems increasingly unlikely.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Journal: Weekly Report ; ISSN: 1860-3343 ; Volume: 5 ; Year: 2009 ; Issue: 25 ; Pages: 176-181 ; Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access ; General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Subject: Google ; Internet ; Keyword search ; Search engine ; Unemployment ; Predictions

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Askitas, Nikos ; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2009

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/151064
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET