Arbeitspapier

Long-term outlook for the German statutory pension system

This paper presents long term projections of the German pension system that are based on a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (OLG). This framework takes into account the two way feedback of both micro and macroeconomic relationships, meaning that households, for example, react to changes in the statutory pension system, such as the retirement age or the replacement rate. Changes in households' behaviour, in turn, impact on macroeconomic developments and public finances. One approach to parametrically reform the pension system would be linking (indexing) the retirement age systematically to increasing life expectancy. The model shows that the resulting increase in employment would also bolster social security contributions and taxes. Moreover, with a rising retirement age and the associated longer periods of work, pension entitlements would increase.

ISBN
978-3-95729-703-7
Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 22/2020

Classification
Wirtschaft
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Fiscal Policy
Social Security and Public Pensions
Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Retirement; Retirement Policies
Subject
Demographic Change
Pension System
OLG Models

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Schön, Matthias
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Deutsche Bundesbank
(where)
Frankfurt a. M.
(when)
2020

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Schön, Matthias
  • Deutsche Bundesbank

Time of origin

  • 2020

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