Arbeitspapier
Economic Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We consider several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction effects with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that monetary policy shocks affect economic activity considerably weaker when uncertainty is high, consistently with "real-options" effects suggested by models with non-convex adjustment costs. Investment responds two to five times weaker when uncertainty is in its upper instead of its lower decile. High U.S. uncertainty is associated with lower policy influence not only domestically, but in Canada too.
- ISBN
-
978-82-7553-770-4
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2013/17
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
structural VAR
uncertainty
monetary policy
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Aastveit, Knut Are
Natvik, Gisle James
Sola, Sergio
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Norges Bank
- (wo)
-
Oslo
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Aastveit, Knut Are
- Natvik, Gisle James
- Sola, Sergio
- Norges Bank
Entstanden
- 2013
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