Addressing challenges in uncertainty quantification: the case of geohazard assessments
Abstract We analyse some of the challenges in quantifying uncertainty when using geohazard models. Despite the availability of recently developed, sophisticated ways to parameterise models, a major remaining challenge is constraining the many model parameters involved. Additionally, there are challenges related to the credibility of predictions required in the assessments, the uncertainty of input quantities, and the conditional nature of the quantification, making it dependent on the choices and assumptions analysts make. Addressing these challenges calls for more insightful approaches yet to be developed. However, as discussed in this paper, clarifications and reinterpretations of some fundamental concepts and practical simplifications may be required first. The research thus aims to strengthen the foundation and practice of geohazard risk assessments.
- Standort
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Umfang
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Online-Ressource
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Addressing challenges in uncertainty quantification: the case of geohazard assessments ; volume:16 ; number:6 ; year:2023 ; pages:1601-1615 ; extent:15
Geoscientific model development ; 16, Heft 6 (2023), 1601-1615 (gesamt 15)
- Urheber
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Cardenas, Ibsen Chivata
Aven, Terje
Flage, Roger
- DOI
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10.5194/gmd-16-1601-2023
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2023033005334607219458
- Rechteinformation
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Letzte Aktualisierung
- 14.08.2025, 10:47 MESZ
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Beteiligte
- Cardenas, Ibsen Chivata
- Aven, Terje
- Flage, Roger
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