Business Cycle Volatility in Germany

Arbeitspapier

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the case of the United States. In consequence, it is difficult to answer the question whether the decline in output volatility in Germany reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely ?good luck?.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1129

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; International Financial Markets ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Open Economy Macroeconomics ; Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
• Subject: Business Cycle ; Volatility ; Germany ; Konjunktur ; Volatilität ; Schätzung ; Deutschland

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Buch, Claudia M. ; Doepke, Joerg ; Pierdzioch, Christian
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Kiel Institute for World Economics (IfW)
• (where): Kiel
• (when): 2002

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/17797
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:46 AM CET