Arbeitspapier
In search of the Euro area fiscal stance
This paper investigates the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate EMU business cycle. Previous studies, based on the assumption of non-separability between public and private consumption, obtain a large public consumption multiplier, a small fraction of non-Ricardian households and, consequently, a relatively small multiplier for public transfers. We provide motivations for assuming separability and, on these grounds, we estimate a relatively large share of non-Ricardian households. As a result, we obtain that both multipliers are large. We also find that, in spite of their potentially strong effects, fiscal policies were substantially muted during the EMU years. This result is confirmed even for the post 2007 period. In fact fiscal policies did not complement the monetary policy stimulus in response to the financial crisis. Further, we cannot detect any substantial aggregate effect of austerity measures. Finally, the post-2007 surge in expenditure-to-GDP ratios was apparently determined by non-policy shocks that reduced output growth.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series ; No. WP16/12
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Estimation: General
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
DSGE
Limited Asset Market Participation
Bayesian Estimation
Euro Area
Business Cycle
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Albonico, Alice
Tirelli, Patrizio
Paccagnini, Alessia
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University College Dublin, UCD School of Economics
- (wo)
-
Dublin
- (wann)
-
2016
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Albonico, Alice
- Tirelli, Patrizio
- Paccagnini, Alessia
- University College Dublin, UCD School of Economics
Entstanden
- 2016
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