Narratives on the causes of inflation in Germany: First results of a pilot study

Arbeitspapier

Since 2021, the inflation rate in Germany and the euro area has increased significantly. At the same time, there are increasing signs of ``de-anchoring'' of inflation expectations in Germany. This paper - building on the approach of Andre et al. (2022) - examines in a pilot study survey-based narratives for the rising inflation together with socio-economic factors. A mixed-methods approach is used to classify the narratives, with clustering based on statistical criteria. A regression analysis is used to examine the relationship between socio-economic factors and narratives on the one hand, and the relationship between narratives/clusters of narratives and a de-anchoring of inflation expectations on the other hand. We can associate certain narratives with socio-economic characteristics and political partisanship. Narrative complexity is a function of education and literacy. Narrative clusters correspond to certain milieus and dimensions of socio-economic stratification. Narratives of supply shortages and price gouging are positively correlated with anchored expectations; demand and government plus other narratives are negatively correlated with anchored expectations.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: WiSo-HH Working Paper Series ; No. 77

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Macro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy‡
• Subject: Narratives ; expectation formation ; inflation ; Germany

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Demgensky, Lisa ; Fritsche, Ulrich
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Universität Hamburg, Fakultät für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, WiSo-Forschungslabor
• (where): Hamburg
• (when): 2023

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/274551
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET