Arbeitspapier
Costs and potential funding of expanded public pension coverage in Asia
Public pension burdens in most emerging Asian economies are still relatively small. However, there are a number of reasons to believe that they will increase markedly in the coming years. First, many Asian economies will face rapidly aging populations, which will raise pension and other old-age-related spending dramatically. Second, as economies develop, political pressures to expand the coverage of public pensions and raise pension benefits will likely increase. The first objective of this paper is to identify the potential fiscal burden of public pensions in 23 emerging Asian economies, based on econometric models and forecasts of GDP and demographic trends. Using two different methodologies yields estimated increases in the average share of public pension expenditures in GDP of 1.0 percentage point and 3.6 percentage points by 2030 compared with current levels. We believe the latter estimate is more realistic. The second objective is to recommend policies to provide adequate funding for public pension needs, including enhancing the efficiency of social insurance programs, improving the balance of revenues and expenditures, implementing more explicit fiscal rules and frameworks, and establishing stronger fiscal surveillance at the national and regional levels.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: ADBI Working Paper ; No. 748
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
National Government Expenditures and Health
National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock
Social Security and Public Pensions
National Deficit; Surplus
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- Subject
-
public pensions
Asian emerging economies
social protection
population aging
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Morgan, Peter J.
Trinh, Long Q.
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
- (where)
-
Tokyo
- (when)
-
2017
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Morgan, Peter J.
- Trinh, Long Q.
- Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
Time of origin
- 2017
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