Arbeitspapier

What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks

This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of lowfrequency macroeconomic variables that are representative of the U.S. economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low-frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allows us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. We find that credit and labor market variables react the most to uncertainty shocks in that they exhibit a prolonged negative response to such shocks. When examining detailed investment sub-categories, our estimates suggest that the most irreversible investment projects are the most affected by uncertainty shocks. We also find that the responses of macroeconomic variables to uncertainty shocks are relatively similar across single- and mixed-frequency data models, suggesting that the temporal aggregation bias is not acute in this context.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper ; No. 2016-25

Classification
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Subject
Business fluctuations and cycles
Econometric and statistical methods

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Ferrara, Laurent
Guérin, Pierre
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Bank of Canada
(where)
Ottawa
(when)
2016

DOI
doi:10.34989/swp-2016-25
Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Ferrara, Laurent
  • Guérin, Pierre
  • Bank of Canada

Time of origin

  • 2016

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