Arbeitspapier
Recent changes in the US business cycle
The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be considerably longer than the historical average.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Staff Report ; No. 126
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Monetary Policy
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Thema
-
Recession
Common Factor
Business Cycle
Bayesian Methods
Konjunktur
Zeitreihenanalyse
Bayes-Statistik
USA
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Chauvet, Marcelle
Potter, Simon
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- (wo)
-
New York, NY
- (wann)
-
2001
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Chauvet, Marcelle
- Potter, Simon
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Entstanden
- 2001
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995
Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle - Evidence and Causes
Downskilling: Changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle
Model-based Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Decomposition for Europe and the U.S.
Changes in the character of the labor market over the business cycle
Business cycle narratives
Business Cycle Narratives
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
Recent Educational Changes in India.
A new approach to infer changes in the synchronization of business cycle phases
The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995
Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle - Evidence and Causes
Downskilling: Changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle
Model-based Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Decomposition for Europe and the U.S.
Changes in the character of the labor market over the business cycle
Business cycle narratives
Business Cycle Narratives
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
Recent Educational Changes in India.
A new approach to infer changes in the synchronization of business cycle phases
The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995
Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle - Evidence and Causes
Downskilling: Changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle
Model-based Business Cycle and Financial Cycle Decomposition for Europe and the U.S.
Changes in the character of the labor market over the business cycle
Business cycle narratives
Business Cycle Narratives
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
Recent Educational Changes in India.